Can A Wrinkle in Time Take Down Black Panther at the Box Office?

Disney’s box office dominance over the past few years has been quite the sight to behold, whether it be its Marvel movies, itsStar Warsadventures, or its animated fare from Disney Animation Studios or Pixar. Like a well-oiled machine, the studio looks to transfer its box office power from one blockbuster, Marvel’sBlack Panther, which has won for the past three weeks in a row, to another, the studio’s live-action adaptation ofA Wrinkle in Time. This adaptation of Madeleine D’Engle’s timeless novel should have no trouble taking down the three other newcomers opening this weekend, Entertainment Studios’The Hurricane Heist, STX Entertainment’sGringoand Aviron’sStrangers: Prey at Nightthis weekend.

As of now, none of these four newcomers have enough reviews accrued to post aRotten Tomatoesrating, but that will change over the next few days. One of themany reasonswhyA Wrinkle In Timeshould have no trouble taking down these newcomers is it already has a huge advantage in terms of theater count.A Wrinkle In Timeis expected to open in an estimated 3,800 theaters, which is far more than all of its competitors this weekend, but not quite as much as the 4,084 theatersBlack Pantherwas shown in last weekend.The Hurricane Heistis expected to arrive in approximately 2,500 theaters, while bothStrangers: Prey at NightandGringoare expected to debut in roughly 2,400 theaters. We’re predicting thatA Wrinkle In Timewill open in first place with $55.6 million, followed byBlack Pantherdropping to second place with $39.2 million.

Even before production started onA Wrinkle In Time, the adaptation made history, with director Ava DuVernay becoming the first everAfrican-American female directorto take the helm of a $100 million movie. Only one other female director has accomplished that feat before, Patty Jenkins, who took the helm ofWonder Woman, which was the third-highest grossing movie of 2017 with $412.5 million. While we certainly knowA Wrinkle In Timecost more than $100 million, no exact budget figures have been released at this time, and it will be interesting to see how international audiences react to this movie as well.A Wrinkle In Timewill not have a release in China, which limits the amount of U.S. movies released in its country each year.

We’re predicting that the top five will includeRed Sparrowin third place with $9.8 million, followed by newcomerThe Hurricane Heist, whichlooks absolutely insane, in fourth place with $8.1 million andDeath Wishin fifth place with $6.2 million. The top 10 will be rounded out byGringo($5.8 million),Game Night($5.4 million),Peter Rabbit($5 million),Strangers: Prey At Night($4.1 million) andAnnihilation($3.3 million). Also opening in limited release is Focus Features’Thoroughbreds, Vertical Entertainment’sSheep & Wolves, Sony Pictures Classics’The Leisure Seeker, Magnolia’sLeaning Into the Wind, Well Go USA’sGirls Vs. Gangsters, IFC’sThe Death of Stalinand Cinema Guild’sClaire’s Camera.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Warner Bros. rolls outTomb Raider, alongside 20th Century Fox’sLove, Simonand Roadside Attractions’I Can Only Rememberin wide release. Also opening in limited release is Focus Features'7 Days in Entebbe, The Orchard’sFlower, Indican’sThe Happys, Screen Media’sJosie, Good Deed’sJourney’s Endand Vertical Entertainment’sTilt. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of March 16, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates.