Can Blade Runner 2049 Dethrone IT at the Box Office?

Thanks to three underperforming newcomers, the fall blockbusterITreturned to top the box office with a paltry $17.3 million in the estimates, but when the actual numbers were released yesterday, it was actually far worse, withKingsman: The Golden Circlecoming out on top with $16.93 million, andITdropping to second with $16.9 million.Kingsman 2’s two-week reign will most likely come to a close this weekend withBlade Runner 2049hitting theaters, armed with a wealth ofBlade Runner buzzand strong reviews, making it an easy choice to win this weekend, even while going up against a diverse slate of newcomers like 20th Century Fox’sThe Mountain Between Usand Lionsgate’sMy Little Ponymovie. Still, the R-ratedBlade Runner 2049should have no trouble topping the box office with a projected $51.6 million.

Last month, the first box office projections put theBlade Runner 2049 opening weekendat north of $40 million, which, ironically, is more than the $32.8 million domestic lifetime total for the originalBlade Runnermovie, which includes theatrical re-releases. Still, that projection was made before the reviews came out, with the critics showering heaps of praise on the sci-fi sequel, earning an impressive 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with just four “rotten” reviews out of 63 total thus far. Given the tendency for R-rated fare to out-perform its projections, a $51.6 million debut forBlade Runner 2049is certainly not out of the question, and may ultimately prove to be too low, if the buzz keeps building until Friday’s release.

Blade Runner 2049is set thirty years after the events of the first film, following a new blade runner, LAPD Officer K (Ryan Gosling), unearths a long-buried secret that has the potential to plunge what’s left of society into chaos. K’s discovery leads him on a quest to find Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford), a former LAPD blade runner who has been missing for 30 years. Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford lead a diverse cast that also includes Ana de Armas, Sylvia Hoeks, Robin Wright, Mackenzie Davis, Carla Juri, Lennie James, with Dave Bautista and Jared Leto. Acclaimed filmmaker Denis Villeneuve (Arrival,Prisoners) directs from a script by originalBlade Runnerwriter Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, with Ridley Scott producing.

TheR-rated Blade Runner 2049is projected to debut in a whopping 3,900 theaters, but it’s possible it could be pushed into the 4,000 theater range. Only three R-rated movies in history have opened in more than 4,000 theaters, all released this year,Kingsman: The Golden Circle(4,003),Logan(4,071) andIT(4,103). While, in most years, a PG animated film likeMy Little Ponywould be expected to easily walk away with the win, this year has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that audiences are craving R-rated fare more than ever, and it’s showing at the box office. Besides,My Little Ponyis only expected to open in 2,500 theaters this weekend, with the PG-13 dramaThe Mountain Between Usarriving in roughly 2,900 theaters.

We’re predicting that the top 10 will be rounded out byThe Mountain Between Us($14.6 million),My Little Pony: The Movie($13.5 million),IT($10.1 million),Kingsman: The Golden Circle($9 million),American Made($8.8 million),The LEGO Ninjago Movie($6.1 million),Flatliners$3.2 million),Battle of the Sexes($1.9 million),American Assassin($1.2 million). Also arriving in limited release are Vertical Entertainment’s2307: Winter’s Dream, Dada Films’Architects of Denial, Parade Deck Films’Bad Grandmas, Well Go USA’sBetter Watch OutandCity of Rock, Hanover House’sDaisy Winters, BBC Worldwide North America’sEarth: One Amazing Day, A24’sThe Florida Project, Freestyle Releasing’sGenerational Sins, Film Movement’sParadise, Good Deed’sSo B. It, Purdie Distribution’sThe Strayand Eammon Films’Una. Focus Features’Victoria and Abdulis also expanding to 750 films this weekend, but it may not be enough for it to crack the top 10.

Looking ahead to next weekend,Box Office Mojoreports that there will be four new movies opening in wide release, with STX Entertainment’sThe Foreigner, Universal’sHappy Death Day, Open Road Films’Marshalland Annapurna Pictures’Professor Marston and the Wonder Women. Also opening in limited release next weekend is IFC’s78/52: Hitchcock’s Shower Scene, Bleecker Street’sBreathe, Matson Films’The Departure, Fox Serchlight’sGoodbye Christopher Robin, Indican’sThe Lucky Man, Parade Deck Films’Man From Earth: Holocene, Vertical Entertainment’sThe Secret Scripture, Freestyle Releasing’sSwing Awayand Super LTD’sWASTED! The Story of Food Waste. Take a look at our projected top 10 for the weekend of October 6, and check back on Sunday for the official box office estimates.