Can The Last Knight Reclaim Transformers Box Office Glory?

After dethroningWonder Woman, while taking down three other newcomers, the Disney Pixar animated sequelCars 3will have a short one-weekend reign atop the box office, going up against the action-packed live-action sequelTransformers: The Last Knight, which opens on Wednesday, June 21, and has no direct competition in wide release either on Wednesday, or throughout the weekend, although there are a slew of indie titles opening in limited release. This finalTransformersfranchise movie from directorMichael Bayshould have no trouble taking the top spot, with a projected three-day opening weekend of $84.7 million, with a five-day total from Wednesday through Sunday reaching $157.2 million. If these projections are accurate, it will continue theTransformersfranchise’s unpredictable track record when it comes to opening weekends.

This franchise shows not only how unpredictable audiences can be, but how front-loaded the industry has become in the past decade. TheTransformers franchisekicked off 10 years ago with the firstTransformersmovie, which turned young stars Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox into household names. The movie opened well, with $70.5 million, which would represent just 22.1% of its domestic gross of $319.2 million, which was the third-highest grossing movie of 2007, behindShrek the Third($322.7 million) andSpider-Man 3($337.5 million). The 2009 sequelTransformers: Revenge of the Fallenopened much bigger, with a $108.9 million debut (27.1% of domestic gross), en route to a $402.1 million domestic tally, second highest of 2009, behindAvatar($749.7 million) and $836.3 million worldwide.

Two years later in 2011, the nextTransformers movie,Transformers: Dark of the Moon, slipped just a bit, at least domestically, opening with $97.8 million (27.8% of domestic total) en route to $352.3 million domestically but a whopping $1.1 billion worldwide, thanks to the emergence of China as a global box office powerhouse. That movie earned $165.1 million from China alone, whereas the first two movies earned $103 million from China combined. That trend would continue with the last installment, 2014’sTransformers: Age of Extinction, which opened with $100 million (40.8% of its domestic total), with $245.4 million domestic and $1.1 billion worldwide, thanks to a whopping $320 million from China alone. The Chinese market will also be integral to the success ofTransformers: The Last Knight.

Box Office Mojoprojects thatTransformers 5will open in 3,900 theaters, which would be the lowest rollout inTransformersfranchise history, with each of the past four movies opening in at least 4,000 theaters, with 2014’sTransformers: Age of Extinctiondebuting in 4,233 theaters. There aren’t enough movie reviews posted forTransformers: The Last Knightto warrant a Rotten Tomatoes score, but the franchise has never been a hit with critics. The firstTransformersfrom 2007 scored a 57% rating, the closest it had come to a “fresh” score, but all of its follow-ups,Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen(19%),Transformers: Dark of the Moon(35%), andTransformers: Age of Extinction(18%) have been critical flops.

We’re projecting that the top 10 from last weekend will all simply move down a spot, withCars 3($30.7 million),Wonder Woman($25.8 million),All Eyez on Me($13.6 million) andThe Mummy($8.2 million) rounding out the top 5 behind thisTransformers sequel. The top 10 will likely be rounded out by47 Meters Down($6.2 million),Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales($4.1 million),Rough Night($3.8 million),Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie($3.2 million) andGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2($2.8 million). Also opening in limited release is Vertical Entertainment’sAlien Arrival, which will debut alongside Neon’sThe Bad Batch, Indican’sA Beginner’s Guide to Snuff, Focus Features’The Beguiledremake, Lionsgate’sThe Big Sick, a pair of Abramorama documentaries,Food EvolutionandF(l)ag Football, Arc Entertainment’sThe Operative, Strand’sThe Ornithologist, Screen Media’sRippedand Yash Raj’sTubelight.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Sony Pictures will roll outBaby Driveron Wednesday, June 28, with the Universal animated sequelDespicable Me 3, Warner Bros.' comedyThe Houseand The Weinstein Company’sAmityville: The Awakeningarriving in theaters Friday June 30 to close out the month. Also arriving in limited release is Sony Pictures Classics'13 Minutes, Neon’s documentaryThe B-Side: Elsa Dorfman’s Portrait Photography, Gunpowder & Sky’s comedyThe Little Hoursand Strand’s documentary’sThe Skyjacker’s Tale. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of June 23, and check back on Sunday for the box office estimates.