How Many Records Will Black Panther Break in Its 2nd Weekend?

While early projections put Marvel’sBlack Pantherbetween the $100M and $120M range for its opening weekend, the blockbuster doubled its lower projection for the three-day weekend ($201.7M) and nearly doubled the high end of the projection for thePresident’s Day four-day holiday weekend($235M). The movie will have a bit more competition this weekend, going up against the Warner Bros. comedyGame Night, Paramount’s sci-fi thrillerAnnihilationand Orion Pictures’Every Day, although none of those movies are expected to put up much of a fight, and it’s possible thatBlack Panthercould set yet another box office record in its second frame.

Black Panthercouldn’t manage to break the all-timeopening weekendrecord of $247.9M set byStar Wars: The Force Awakens, but there is still an outside chance it could break another one ofStar Wars: The Force Awakens' many box office records, with an impressive second-weekend. Unsurprisingly,Star Wars: The Force Awakensholds records for the highest second weekend ($149.2M, 39.8% decrease) and third weekend ($90.2M, 39.5% decrease). While it may seem incredibly unlikely, we’re puttingBlack Panther’s second frame at $150.1M, a decrease of just 26% from its three-day tally, solely based on itsincredible daily numbersit posted throughout the weekend.

While second-weekend drops of 50% are normal from a movie’s opening weekend to its second weekend, it’s also normal for rather sizeable drops between each day of a movie’s opening weekend.Star Wars: The Force Awakensposted a record-breaking $119.1M on its opening day (which also includes Thursday sneak preview screenings) and it dropped a respectable 42.7% on Saturday, putting up $68.2M, while dropping just 11.3% on Sunday with $60.5M.Black Pantherput up a strong Friday number of $75.8M, but it dropped just 13.1% on Saturday ($65.8M) and a tiny 8.8% on Sunday ($60M). While the actual daily numbers aren’t in yet, it’s already possible that the Sunday tally could be a new record, which is even moreimpressiveconsideringBlack Panther’s Friday numbers were nowhere close toThe Force Awakens. This also makes the potentially record-breaking second weekend more plausible, which could set up ahuge runthroughout February and beyond.

Of this weekend’s newcomers,Game Nightis slated to arrive in the most theaters, with an estimated rollout of more than 3,300 theaters, roughly 700 fewer thanBlack Pantherdebuted at last weekend. Paramount’sAnnihilationis slated to debut in roughly 2,000 theaters, whileEvery Daydebuts in 1,650 theaters. As of now, there are not enough reviews posted for any of the new releases yet. We’re projecting thatGame Nightdebuts in a very, very distant second place with $14.6M, followed by holdoverPeter Rabbitin third with $9.4M,Annihilationin fourth place with $8.3M andFifty Shades Freedwith $7.2M. Rounding out the top 10 will likely beJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle($4.3 million),The 15:17 to Paris($3.5 million),The Greatest Showman($3.1 million),Early Man($1.9 million) andEvery Day($1.4 million).

Also debuting in limited release this weekend is IFC’sThe Cured, Screen Media’sCurvature, Hannover House’sDeath House, Parade Deck Films’Hannah, Epic Pictures’The Lodgers, Oscilloscope Pictures’November, Well Go USA’sOperation Red Sea, Gravitas Ventures’Survivors Guide to Prisonand The Orchard’sThe Young Karl Marx. Next weekend features just two new releases opening wide, MGM’sDeath Wishremake and 20th Century Fox’sRed Sparrow, with Indican’sApocalypsis, Cinedigm’sDance Academy: The Comeback, Sony Pictures Classics’Foxtrot, Film Movement’sOh Lucy!, Strand’sSouvenirand Great Lakes’Submissionarriving in limited release. Take a look at our projections for the weekend of February 23, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.