You don’t need advanced algorithms or a Google search trend chart to see the writing on the wall forsuperheromovies. Disney+ banked on the superhero genre when the tides were highest, but they soon learned that they had trapped themselves by appealing to a prexisting audience with minimal or zero room for growth (viaBusiness Insider).
The caped crime-fighter genre is dying a long, slow death. Look no further than the raw data from Disney’s streaming platform, which was designed in part to exploit the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), the most profitable IP in international cinema for over a decade. Remarkably, Disney has lost millions for three straight years, according toReuters, despite being in the ideal spot to rake in money when theaters were locked up. After a painful 2022, the prognosis is not looking good for the MCU and Disney, nor for the whole comic-hero trend in general.
Waning interest for a genre may not reflect quality, only that a fad has run its course. The superhero genre has already experienced the highest of highs and some pretty harrowing lows, too. You only need to examine the 70s through the 90s to see DC firmly in control in the comic book wars on-screen. Marvel …well, they were also making movies, bless their hearts. In the grand scheme of movie trends, with proper perspective, it shouldn’t seem shocking at all to see the king lose his crown. Yes, we will eventually live in a world where Marvel isn’t siting atop the box office day in, day out. But what could possibly replace the genre?
The Natural Life Cycle of Trends
Starting at some point in the 50s, it began profitable to bank on authors if you didn’t own the contract of headlining stars, in some cases studios tossing cash at books that did not exist yet solely on the expectation that it would be a blockbuster. Superhero movies work much the same way. The idea of the “pre-sold” film counted on the celebrity of the person creating it — and it still does. The strategy of speculation is more important now that ever. Not evencompleted films are safe, should a bean counter suspect an upcoming movie is incapable of recovering their marketing expenses.
Movie companies rely on recognizable genres, first musicals in the 30s and 40s,westerns in the 50s, (first traditional, than spaghetti), sci-fi in the late-70s, slashers in the 80s, rom-coms in the 90s, etc. A single blockbuster film can serve as the “template for the next decade’s action film” (perThe Hollywood Action and Adventure Film). This became readily apparent in the 70s, when Hollywood studios were on the edge of destitution and were forced against their better judgment to take a stab at the youth demographics instead of fixating on adults. The filmAlienwas originally marketed to prospective buyers as aJawsknock-off in its elevator pitch (Jawsthen the most profitable film ever made).
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For the better part of 20 years, superhero movies owned the box office. Monster movies and disaster movies re-emerge every 20 or so years, and likewise the superhero genre will not simply disappear. Genres don’t die; they merely become harder to pitch to movie studios. As Ann Hornaday pointed out (viaWashington Post), “Today …Love Storywould more likely be made by Netflix or the Hallmark Channel than a big studio.” When a genre loses momentum, everyone aboard is quick to abandon the bandwagon. By the nature of how film companies are set up, they must find one or two monolithic, easily-marketable genres or face ruin.
A Blueprint Without a Mandate
Marvel’sAvengersreached a climactic end with no real direction to carry onward, outside of reboots, undercooked spin-offs, and TV shows. However, that is only a step backward, as the stakes get smaller, the scale is reduced. There is simply no foundation, nor goodwill, to keep the superhero mill running. The MCU was built around the idea of several complex interlocking narratives culminating at a specific point. It did so, and quite well. But now what?
It would finally appear that there isn’t much left in the tank. There areplans for a Phase 5and Phase 6, but will anyone really have the stomach for a re-reboot ofThe Fantastic Fourafter the last one tanked and sunk into oblivion? Marvel’s type of comedy is already showing its age, and the spectacle is wearing thin. Audiences can only watch the world get saved from aliens with super lasers so many times.
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The newest additions to the MCU that debuted in 2022 did nothing to cement a post-Avengerstimeline, those films struggling to attract half of the business thatSpider-Man: No Way Homedid in 2021, a year affected by COVID no less.Morbiusbombed in spectacular fashion, as didEternalsand DC’sBlack Adam. Speaking of DC, they never even successfully launched their own universe, relying on an under-performing soloBatmanto pay the bills in 2022, the Justice League subject to perpetual tinkering for the better part of a decade.
Usurpers to the Throne
It’s a question of when, not if, the superhero film gets replaced as the de facto cash cow for Hollywood. Horror has shed its schlocky reputation thanks to films likeGet OutandA Quiet Place. TV shows likeDahmerand theKnives Outmovie franchise have led to a revival in detective stories and true-crime thrillers in the short term.
The long-term answer for the superhero genre’s replacement is more obvious, if you look only at money. Expect to see a ton of video-game-to-screen adaptations in the coming years, taking advantage of the fact that gaming is a still largely untapped source of fandom, nostalgia, and recognizable characters and canon. The preferred hobby of Millennials, it is more lucrative than the cumulative revenue of both the music and movie industry. In business jargon, it is flush with “brand leverage.”
Licensed movie-tie-in games have been around for 40 years. We should expect to see the opposite trend more and more. Ironically, the critique always levied againstThe Last of Usgame was that it was too “cinematic,” too heavy on plot, and lacked compelling or deep gameplay. Now a humongous hit, Sony’s success is a green light to fellow game IP owners, always looking for new income streams as the games themselves run out of steam. Despite theHaloTV series' rocky reception from hardcore fans, a ten-million-an-episode sticker price is indicative of a major shift in programming, not a one-time gamble.
An Activision-Blizzard exec recently hinted of what’s to come (viaPC Gamer), tweeting in response to the success of HBO Max’sThe Last of Usminiseries: “Sony has an unrivaled warchest of IP, not just in gaming but TV, movies, and music — which can be developed into games, or can market existing games.” Once laughed at as a joke, superhero movies are now regularly nominated for Academy Awards. It took decades for comics to dominate the big-screen, don’t expect it to take that long for video games to do the same.
