Avatar: The Way of Waterhas been nominated in four different Oscar categories this year. The film is competing for Best Visual Effects, Best Production Design, Best Sound, and Best Picture. And although fans might believe the movie should win that last award,The Way of Waterprobably won’t winBest Picture this year. Not that James Cameron’s sequel isn’t fantastic, but this second film is just one of many that will take us back to Pandora. Each one of the coming Avatar films will likely be nominated for one, if not several Oscars.
James Cameron’s incredible saga will begin to unfold over the coming years, and as the thrill in his series builds, so too will the attention it receives from the Academy. But the Oscar voters know these films are on the horizon, and it would be rude if the same film franchise won Best Picture four years in a row. That being said, the other films nominated for Best Picture raise themselves on their own ample merits. ButThe Way of Water’snomination was more of a limited award in itself as if the Academy were telling James Cameron, “It’s coming. Just keep doing what you’re doing.” But against the profound films in the running this year, and everything it has to offer in the future,Avatar: The Way of Waterwill probably not win Best Picture.

What Oscars Will The Way of Water Win?
Avatar: The Way of Wateris a good tide linefor the coming Avatar movies. The high-water mark it left on the industry is just a weatherman’s forecast for the eventual tidal wave that James Cameron will provide with his finale.Avataralready broke the levies when it came out 13 years prior. And nowThe Way of Wateris giving us the storm surge that rolls into the beach before the hurricane makes landfall. Yes, it dived into the Mariana Trenches of our hearts, but there is so much of the sea left to explore. Like a trickle of rain that grows into a downpour, all rivers lead to the ocean, and when we get there, we’ll find an Oscar nomination forThe Way of Waterwas already a deep lake to swim in. It’s safe to say that when the Academy sees the rest of theAvatarsaga, they’re gonna need a bigger boat.
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Water puns aside, we can all guess that James Cameron will win a slew of awards over the course of hisAvatarfilm series. But it won’t be this year that he wins Best Picture.Avatar(2009) didn’t win Best Picture either. In fact, it’s becoming steadily apparent that the Avatar films might have their legacy firmly planted in cinematography. At the moment,The Way of Wateris better known in Hollywood for its incredible visual effects and the new technology invented specifically to help film it. If the Academy wants to presentThe Way of Waterwith an award, they’re likelier to do it in the Production Design or Visual Effects categories, as they did withAvatar(2009).
Why Avatar Won’t Win Best Picture
But at some point,James Cameronwill be recognized for his, dare we say,Titanicfeat. He alreadybroke records at the box officewithAvatarand seems to be on a path to creating his magnum opus since then. And the Academy is aware of this. They know that moreAvatarfilms are coming, and James Cameron is an auteur that does not disappoint. So saying he deserves to win Best Picture now is like saying he should win it forthe next three Avatar movies. A nomination this year, and the one for the original film, serve as a kind of nod from the Academy, implying that they recognize his hard work but might not fully reward it until they see its apex.
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This year, as every year, several films are deserving of this award, and the only real snub from the nominees may have beenThe Woman King. But out of all those nominated, each has its reason to take home this prize. So it would only be worth listing them here if some were more worthy than others, and that’s simply not true. What seems to have stunned the world, though, isEverything Everywhere All at Once, which anyone would agree was truly a groundbreaking film. It’s currently the favorite with the greatest number of nods from Oscar voters.
Avatar: The Way of Watersits in a rare position. It’s a movie good enough to be nominated for Best Picture, but it also belongs to a series of films that will give the director another bite at the apple if it loses. Essentially, James Cameron has given himself five chances to win an Oscar for his work, but certainly, it will be the last one he wants the most. If the Academy waits untilAvatar 5to award Cameron Best Picture, it will be like giving the Oscar to the entire series.The Lord of the Ringswasn’t granted Best Picture untilReturn of the Kingwhen it won every Oscar it was nominated for. And we might see something similar happen withAvatar.